Fiday.. noon market dumping

well the bulls cant do shit! Its all about the fear of the PIIGS. bNas is getting hammered the worst. dow is only down 21 but the compx was down over 30. bouncing back now a bit. actually the spx RL at 1077.41 was hit and held. if the spy breaks 107.47 then next stop on spx is 1065. I'm concerned about the 45 day cycle low should be today or next week. I am opening a new account on marketguru.com under the name georgebailey . A fresh start where I will include my trades based on my new methods using daily charts, trix, linear regression curves, IFT, and MACDBB3. Right now I have 9 ETFs based on this method and they are up over 13% since 1/20. At any rate, now trades and cum performance can be gotten at market gurus. I will put up the link later. 12:13 and market making new lows, SPY stopped off meaning next stop for spx is 1065.

Thurs 12:50

there are 3 bullish divergences on the hourly spx on RSI14. also bullish divergence on trix and ift. but this market just feels like there is nothing to push it back up. where did all the bulls go? Its the PIIGS that are affecting the market, with greece leading the way. but I knew about this long before and is one of the primary reasons I am so bearish. That and the housing problem which has not gone away and is going to resurface big. I outta be in SDS and FAZ and TZA and just sitting there. Another big down market today... dow down over 100

Thursday... mkt down heavy again.

Market made new lows on this down move. Nas way weaker than spx. broke out of the lower end of trading range around 1085ish. Hit 1078, near the 1077.41 RL (83% probability) Looking for a bounce here. On a weekly basis next stop if breaks 1075 would be 1032. And I only have one position on . Very frustrating after waiting all this time for the dump, watching put options go off the board worthless, and now I have none. got out too early. I am missing the party and no way to get back on board. I refuse to chase it. All I can do is wait it out, wait for a bounce. All the buy signals were merely warning that the down move is coming to an end soon... but who knows where. The dailys are not showing a buy yet. And there is no bullish divergence on the MacOsc. its confirmation instead. Whats interesting is that the TRIN is in bullish territory at 0.67. yet the A/D is negative -1685, and the tick is aimed negative. The nas trin is bearish however, 1.38. sell off happening now, 11:20 with tick hitting -1,100. a big wave of selling. a/d is heading for -2000 which would be big. Options are about twice the price I want to buy them at. VIX is at 24-25 pumping up the cost. consider it was at 17 seven days ago. what a deal that was.

Wednesday - FOMC day -Mkt turn up

Market ended up, but more importantly I am seeing lots of buy signals, even if just for a bounce.
McClellan Osc, My IFTbull/bear indicator, VIX trix turn, weekly compx bounced of LT down trend line it previously broke above, 60min IFT xo and macdbb3 buys, TZA turned down at trnd line, $RUT daily bullish engulfing candle, and the bear basket 5min and 60min have turned down. I hope the SPX rallies a good 20 points, maybe even 40, just to get those options nice and cheap so I can position myself for a bigass selloff.

12:30 tuesday market selling off

mkt is cascading down now. even the 60min signals are rolling over. ad line turned negative, trin crossed over and is rising 1.15. ticks tranding down. however lows of the day have not been taken out.

11:30 tueday - getting bearish

market internals turning bearish. tick trnding down, ad trending down but not yet negative, trin trending up but hasnt exceeded 1.0 yet, 5 min charts trending down, plus spx hit first RL of 1104. low probablilty turn point but still a possible turn pont. the cat just crapped, gotta get rid of it.

tuesday 11am

market up. internals are somewhast bullish. trin .80 positive ad line, tick >+600, 60 min buys, + temp, ITF buys... but waiting for macdbb to cross into + territory. that is where it could stop this advance. looking at Qs tgt of 45.33 (mav and res). TNA probably all I can hope for is 43.30. TZA key support is 9.77, then 9.50. Nas is stronger than the spx. up 16, spx up 6. The dailys have not changed however and still are in bear mode.

Tuesday morning

SPX ran down first thing to the 1089 area, didnt hit an RL. I was looking for at least 1086, then bounced and now is about to take out yesterday highs, which is no big deal. I would love to see 1124 to load up on puts/shorts but may have to settle for 1110 area. It sure seems weak. on the other hand, I am getting 60 min ITF, temp, macdbb buy signals. 1122 would be 61.8% bounce.57% RL is at 1124. this would be ideal.

Maclellan osc

the mcClellan oscillator is giving a buy today. but nothing on the vix or daily charts yet.

Big selling going on

OOOOPPPS some serious selling going on right now. TNA is dropping like an anvil in a babies hand. So is the RUT (of course) Oh now it stopped and is bouncing up. what bunch of crazy shit.

Monday, monday dull market action

So where are all those "buy the dip" bulls now?? Slightly up day, but not enough for me to hit the shorts heavy. I guess its all waiting for the wednesday fomc, state of the union etc. I don't like not holding a nice batch of shorts. All I have is one position, so if this market craps in the after hours or overnight, I could miss it. Ideally, the spx would rally back into the 1140's but at least into the 1120s

Mkt internals turning bullish

ad/dec in positive territory, Trin 86 and trending down, tick xo positive.
SPX60 macdbb3 green ball, buy (but still in negative territory so not an all out buy).SDS, TZA, FAZ, SRS all giving 60min caution warning (magenta) on macdbb3

5min mkt LRCs turning up

the bullish divergence on TNA is panning out, all the 5 min lin reg curves are turning up for the market as a whole. and down for the bear etfs. So here is that third part of the predicted move.. market bounce coming up soon here. how high will it rally??

Market internals turning bearish

Market internals are turning bearish. TRIN crossed above 1.00, adv/decl turned negative, 1min tick mavs have turned negative. However the Q's trin are still under 1.0 but rising.

SRS

SRS ... the widow maker, ultra short real estate, is running up. I always thought this sucker will run some day because I think the housing market is just a time bomb ready to explode again. sure enough its rallying today especially off the report that existing home sales plunged 17%. It got down to around 7 bucks in december, was as high as 273, but its been a terrible stock to trade. breakouts do not work on this one. at any rate for a long term investment I bet it pays off big time. its at 8.30 today. I bet it will see 40's easy.

MACD

MACDBB3 on 60min basis still all pointing down for the market. Same with ITF, holding downtrend. Needs to base a bit before small bounce.

bullish divergence

I'm getting used to this blog... lost an entire post. so here goes again.
TNA showing bullish divergence on 15min with the trix. a classic buy setup. TNA is a triple small cap bear etf. opposite of tza. my virtual account is long this sucker from the top.. a big loser, but in my mind a sacrifice to attract the sell off we saw last week. Meanwhile I want to get out of it, flip to short, then buy SDS and QQQQ options on a runup. On the other hand, if TZA goes up enough say 10.50 or 11 I want to cash some out and move to options which have much more leverage. Also its about time for lunchtime in nyc so I outta meditate and calm my mind.

waiting for a rally

market opened up around 8 points this morning, but the housing starts dumped causing a pull back. looks like its gonna test the lows from friday. meanwhile my TZA is running up nicely as the small caps are dropping the most. question is where to get out of some tza and convert to options which have much more leverage. I'm thinking 10.50 to 11.00, (at 10.15 now) and taking 1/3 off the table at that point just in case it continues up (market drops). I am looking for the s&p to bounce to the first safe shorting level of 1124, but so far it hasnt even broken the 1104 level. I need to sell some tza in order to buy tza calls. problem is the money doesnt go into the account till the next day, so I am exposed to any overnight adverse action. the market seems to be treading water at this point... fomc on wednesday, bernanke reappointment or not, apple new product on wednesday. and a multitude of earnings reports this week. probably needs some catalyst to blame the mkt move on. meanwhile the vix is still high, relatively, and options are about double the price now. the time to buy them as before last wednesday. My TZA feb 9 calls are now a double ... Wish I had had the money to take that trade. it was right on.

Market dump for real??

Last week the market took a 4% dump. Of course, after being left with nothing time after time, over the last 7 months, I got out of my puts ...too early. UGH!! Now I am praying for a bounce so I can load up on shorts. puts whatever. I want to be sure and catch this upcoming sell off. Question is how high will the bounce be. Will spx go to 1110, or 1124 or 1144?? or continue selling down. We will see but at least we've finally got some movement after this long melt up. VIX was up 48%! A week ago options were dirt cheap... now they will cost you a bunch. Another reason I sold out of my Feb puts too soon.

thats all for now folks.