Bearish signals

Along with the bearish divergence on the McClellan oscillator, here is a chart of the wilshire 5000 showing all kinds of bearish implications. When it drops it usually drops quickly. Will you bulls retain those profits? This chart is thanks to www.allabouttrends.net

MWJ sell signal

MWJ the triple mid-cap bull ETF gave its first sell signal on todays close, since it gave a buy in mid Feb. It closed at 115.03

Turn around thursday??

SP went and tagged 1180 then dropped 15 points to close lower than the low yesterday at 1165.74. Systems lost another bunch and are down 3130 on the close. It will really be interesting to see how they get out of this mess. I have tested many, many times and stop losses do not work. sometimes trailing stops work but I have found its better to have "change of situation" or trend change stops to work the best. I just wonder when they are going to kick in. so far only one stock has this kind of stop and it didnt do so badly today. DRWI I was getting sell signals across the whole oil patch, I shoulda bailed at break even on the ERX triple energy short. it closed down 4.5% after it was actually up 2%

Still learning after all these years

I have 10 systems positions on and they are down 2627 and getting worse by the minute. 3 of the 10 were mistakes. I now have a new filter. I look at the weekly charts and do not take any long if the 50/10 LRC is pointed down. this would have been KONG, ERX, and DRWI. the 3 total 2600 loss. Not only should I not have taken these but also, KONG was buying open (which gapped hugely) after a big bar up, way over the ATR. I should have waited for the pull back. Anyway.. I just want to bail on these puppies but now I guess its better to see how the system deals with these losers. How bad will it get before the system bails on them. Also... being long this late in the market run is suicide anyway. gee.. now down only 2400. Well this is one of the reasons I am working out the bugs in virtual time instead of real money. its all good.

the 2 sweeties

the 2sweeties are not so sweet. This is the retracement level service I have been subscribing to. They have done just terrible over the last couple months. Keeping me out of the up move thinking it was gonna turn, and getting out too soon on the down move thinkng it was gonna bounce. I think their RLs do more damage than help. Anyway.. I think they are from the old USSR, at least thats the accent that comes thru their emails. Just a bunch of rude obnoxious bastards. Very russian in my mind. I am terminating the service as soon as the current sub runs out next month.

they say

the market will turn here 1174
or if not then here 1183
and if not then here 1198
and if not then here 1222

WTF!! you can get creamed in the meantime,with all these possibilities. Yes they add probabilities but you act on any that are over 50% and all those above are over 50% probable. What a joke... Also they think that history will repeat itself.. maybe.. maybe not. maybe this is an all new time. new normal. Anyway... I was amazed at what assholes they were.

After the vote..

I like the way the right (wrong) was pointing to the stock futures being down because of the health care bill passing before the market opened ... but now that the nasdaq is up a whopping 25 points you don't hear anything. The health care stocks actually were up from the getgo.. gee I wonder why. :). could it be because the bill favors them tremendously. I wish they would all be put out of business and we would simply have universal healthcare... govt run. oh well...

This market is getting extremely stale. I am following 40 stocks with my totemp system. basically most of them are neutral waiting for the next push one way or the other. The ones that I am in now, are not looking great. they are mainly secondary moves that don't show as much promise as a fresh move.

I am long in georgebailey:
RAX
KONG (really bought the farm on this, s/h waited for a pullback, not the open)
ERX
CTEL
AHL

the only ETF is ERX 3x energy long. a little counterintuitive since I am getting other signals to sell oil and commodities. but I am ignoring all else and going with the system to see how it plays out. same with KONG. I am anxious to see how it handles this and how bad a hit it takes if it does bail.

Options

My current system seems to be working just great. no optimization needed for entry. its the exit that needs tweeking for each stock or etf. So i wanted to look back and see about my decisions to buy QQQ puts in Feb using my system. I can see that all indications were pointing up for the market at that time and I was making that age old mistake of top picking. ugh... boy did I take a beating on those. breakeven .67 current price is .05. 42 april puts with the Qs at 47 now. This aint gonna happen. best I can do is pray to recover half the cost and roll out to June or july. but most importantly I now have a good enough system to keep me from doing this top and bottom picking and instead wait for the buy or sell signal. Its gonna take patience but I have been burned so many times by thinking I could tell when the market might turn. Look at my gpanek account in market gure. its all about top and bottom picking and its decimated. I had TNA the entire time the market was going down, then bailed with a loss when it woulda made a ton. after I bailed I started accumulating TZA with an average price of 9 and its at 7.30 right now. If I had followed the new system I woulda made a bundle. live and learn... hopefully.

New highs all around

The dow and SnP have joined the crowd and now are at new highs (15 month). It just won't stop going up and I am getting crushed with my TZA. Awaiting a margin call any day now. I had heard of a SnP target of 1170... well it is darn near there right now. will that be a point to turn at or are we looking at 1200, then 1250 hell.. then 1500... after all why not? It just doesnt make sense to me. But I guess the stock market isn't supposed to. I need a market trend change in order to get on board one way or another. this is exasperating watching from the sidelines. The one big winner system trade, I got out two days ago, since I didnt want it to turn into a loss, and it immediately shot up. ERX is now up 20% UGH!!!!!! meanwhile the one I was able to put off my emotions and hold on to KOPN is at zero profit! How frustrating is that? Right now I am quite depressed about the whole damn thing. Enough said.

12 days up!

I believe this makes 12 up days in a row. All on low volume. Extremely high probability now for a sell off. FOMC week could be the catalyst... although it seems they usually don't say anything anyway. Meanwhile this has been the most boring market ever, for the last two weeks. I got bearish divergence and a sell signal on the McClellan oscillator, the VIX's .. but no outright sell yet using my totemp system.

SnP new highs

the SnP joined the other indices to make new highs. Dow still lagging a bit. I think this will be an interim top either today or monday. Then a sell off back down to the 1080 area. Next RL is 1160-1170. I would like to buy some TZA at 1160 with a tight stop just a point above that mark. I dont like to do top picking with georgebailey, but after 10 up days, the probabilities for a fall are quite huge, combined with a low risk trade, (tight stop).

Some good stocks..

This fellow Ryan Mallory who has www.shareplanner.com blog, has done a scan of stocks that have been in a nice uptrend and have handled the volatility very well (what volatility, its gone nothing but up for a year). I looked at each one of these and they trade very profitably using my new totemp system. Their charts look great. anyway.. here they are

Wild (not) wednesday

another agonizing day, watching the market melt up and flirt with recent highs on low volume. I got a buy today on DZZ the gold short etf, and correspondingly a sell on both DGP and GLD. FAZ and TZA are getting creamed. Ugh. :(

Two bearish signs

McClellan Oscillator has crossed down below its overbought level, and is showing a bearish divergence with todays high. the SnP stopped 5 bucks below its previous high of 1150. Also, both the nasdaq and the SnP Vix have both turned on the TRIX, also at an extreme low level. Also.. this level of the SnP is right under its 200 week moving average which it has had trouble breaking thru.

Giving up the bear??

it seems that some of the staunchest bears are starting to turn bullish. is this the capitulation that could mean the top is in? Tim Knight, the mole.. both are sounding like they have just about given up their bearish stand based on fundamentals. Atilla at xtrends however, is still quite bearish. His kaching trading account got hammered in december and january, people thought he was crazy to hold so many shorts. but it all came back and more from 1/20 - 2/5. I only know, to me, the fundamentals are still lousy with banks not writing down their bad loans to the real market value of the property, with a huge number of mortgage adjustments coming this year (this month) which will no doubt result in a huge increase in foreclosures and therefore a huge increase in inventory, resulting in dropping of real estate prices. then there is the world debt situation with greece, portugal, spain, ireland, italy, and little iceland. On the other hand, all the moving averages or linear regression curves that i use, are still pointing up.... so the market is up whether i think its gonna dump or not. the trend is up... and that is that. trying to pick the top has been a costly mistake for me totally. I need to meditate..

Big view

The SnP has formed a massive double top, looking at the monthly charts. And has yet to cross above the 48 month exponential moving average. In fact, its right under it now. Also LRC50/4 has yet to turn bullish. Interesting, as it always confirmed both bull and bear before. Probably the next 3 months will tell. And, even though its rising, the MACDBB3 is still less than zero. It needs to cross over the baseline to confirm the bull.

Weeks over --- GOOD!

A couple of indications that this market is way overdone. McClellan oscillator is way into overbought territory after today (but there is no bearish divergence yet). QVIX is at all time lows 15.58 which means all fear is gone.And the sp VIX is at 17.42 near the low set in early Jan just before the dump. Also, my indicator of IFT buys vs. sells of all stocks, is now showing way more sells... this usually precedes a sell off. The 60min TRIXdiff has turned down on all indexes and is showing a bearish divergence. Also the new lows on many inverse ETFs fAZ, TZA, SRS, SKF are all way worse than the market actually was this week. After all, the SnP didnt set new highs. Looking at a monthly close only line graph of the SnP, we are exactly at the 50% level from the 2007 high. I think this is all a bunch of irrational exuberance! Thats my story and I'm sticking to it!

internals

TRIN has turned up, ADD line has turned down, and TICK has turned down. looks like the RL finally worked and that will be the high today. This should be a good setup for a short over the w/e. Monday will most likely be down. SnP h.o.d. 1139.38

TNA

TNA has been kicking ass. I missed this trade as I was setting everything up so didnt get it on georgebailey. bought in at 42.33 and its darn close to 52 right now. ATR tgt was 52.10 and it stopped just shy of that. had i had real money on it, i woulda taken it off anywhere above 51.50. so far the high today is 51.74. It will be interesting to see where the system gets out.

RL 1139 hit

the 98% probability RL of 1139 just hit in this last hour of trading. CNBC is all excited about this up day. they are about to pop the champagne. Here I am ready to slit my ankles. Mkt is dropping off that pivot of 1139. Lets see if it takes out one of those stair steps up, to confirm a nice dump ahead.

Ugly Friday

Well this is all very sickening. Unemployment is still huge almost 17%, and the market is melting up some more. The RUS has broken out to the upside, which is devestating to my TZA, now at all time lows. NAS is also strong gainer, less so SnP and even less so the DOW. SnP is only at 1135, so its a bit away from previous highs at 1150ish. but the small caps are roaring and I am getting killed. My new systems are working quite well, with the energy, gold longs seeming to be right. Actually the gold miners cashed out at the profit target price. I am long a new one..KOPN. We will have to see how this one does. The chart looks good. broke out, then pulled back to the LRCs and now its launched another attack. at 3.88 now and resistance comes in at 4.16 then 4.60 area, then over $5. Almost a 20% profit potential. downside stop is at 3.70. The RL point on the SnP is at 1139 however, the 2sweeties have been no help lately. they keep talking about how overbought the market is and too late to go long, and probability is that it will go down.. yeah, right.

Intel short

Intel INTC short on the open today at 20.60. Not in my group of stocks and ETFs to trade but my scanner picked it out. now at 20.37, so we will see.

stops

I came up with a couple new stops which I am liking. what I dont like is stoploss. its gauranteed loss. I dont know how many times I have been stopped out to only see the ETF come back strong. I would rather close out a position if conditions change negatively.

the first exit is a profit target of 2-6x the average true range over 3-15 days. these are both calibrated to the past volatility in the etf so this may be a problem in over optimizing. the next stop is after a certain number of bars, if the LRC25 has crossed over and turned negative, then it trails a stop at the low less .02. Now the other stop I put in is based on the whole trade turning negative based on longer term LRCs starting to shift down.. ie; I look at the difference between the LRC say 50 and a 5 day moving average of it. LRC means linear regression curve. The regular ATR tgt exit is based on the ATR at the time of the entry and locks it in. Mine adjusts as the market volatility changes. The regular ATR stop simply turns off the limit target order and trails a stop at the low after the trade has been on for so long, like 5 bars. vs. mine which only kicks in after so many bars and the conditions turn negative as judged by the LRC25 xo its moving average.

Thursday... dull day ahead

I suppose the markets will be sideways just biding time till the labor report tomorrow. long gold miners and energy still. Also had a buy signal on the euro via FXE but it pulled back at a long term LRC line 50/20.. so could be a failure here... or just a pullback before the launch. The buck is kinda overbought so it just may playout. We will see. Its not in my group of tradeable ETFs because its too expensive at 135 and the reward potential doesnt look that good.

Wednesday wrap

Looks like a doji star (bearish) on the Russell. Also, the stockfetcher number of stocks giving an IFT sell are increasing... generally precedes a dump. Market couldnt hold the highs at all. BTW, there is a huge double top on the SnP if you look at a monthly or weekly chart. If we take out the 666 on the SnP we could really be in for a dumperino.

Wednesday 3/3

So where is that cycle low??? well maybe it will be off a couple days and the labor report will tank the market. On another note.. new systems are working quite well. long euro, long gold, long energy, and should have been long RINO coming out of the chute this morning. TZA is getting killed, hit lifetime lows today at 8.12. SnP stopped right at resistance 1125. 2sweeties called the turn at 1125.64 and the HOD so far was exactly that! I would expect the market to simply diddly around between 1115 and 1125 until Friday and the employment data.

New highs Russell 2000

The russell 2000 which includes a ton of small caps and therefore affects TZA has just made new 2010 highs breaking 650. Makes my real positions toast and my gpanek top and bottom picking account toast too. meanwhile georgebailey which uses my system whereby the market tells me when to place an order or when its going to turn.. is up nicely today with buys in both gold mining stocks and energy. GDX and ERX. On the other hand, the SnP is right at a big resistance level of 1125 and appears to be stalling. that whole range from 1125-1150 is big overhead resistance. I doubt if it will break thru.. but if it does... I am will be decimated.