Whats gonna happen this weekend?

With the 3 day weekend coming up, There could be a korean war, or the BP extravaganza could fail, or more bad news on the Euro front, or more PIIGS problems... all could send the market down. But what could happen that would send the market up on Tuesday??? Seems like the risk is to the downside.

Fake out friday

Lots of head fakes today. Confused the hell outta me. Broke one of my rules and sold off HMIN with a 12% profit as it was dropping only to see it reverse and come back a buck! I know better than to do that. Sell strength, buy weakness. Bought a shitload of longs luckily after the open so I got a better price, but none of them have done well. Meanwhile I want to balance this portfolio a bit going into the weekend. right now I am 35% short and would like that to be closer to 50% and since i am not fully into TZA and TWM, I am wanting to put some more on but keep thinking I should save some bullets left for 1125, if we see it. On the other hand what if a korean war starts over the weekend. The longs are gonna be toast, I need some shorts. ugh dow is only down 73 now.

projection for SnP up move

Who knows were it will stop, however, some things are seeming to line up very nicely. looking at fibonnaci price projections ... 1125 looks like a good target for this up move. Its also right below the 50 day mav and in area of resistance. that would then give a minimum downside of at least 995 which ties out to my other work. Then 945, 915

Buy signals today

Huge up day, didnt think the SnP was gonna break and close above 1100 for awhile but it sure did. some resistance at 1105, then 1125 - 1140, then 1170. It has completed a 50% bounce so far. 61.8% is 1118.
Lots of buy signals today but quite a few are showing long term bear trend therefore not taken:

IT (bought today)
FAA (L/t red - not taken)
WLT (l/t too red)
JAS
SKS
CMCSA
MJN
LCAPA
TCK (l/t too red)
DGP
CCJ (l/t too red)
VIT
RAX (L/t too red)
INCY (l/t too red)
WSM

I only have room to take a couple of these. None of the bearish ETFs have got a COD stop order yet .. so I guess I will be riding them up for a while.

marketguru.com was down all day, except for early morning. didnt matter, I only have half a position in TZA and TWM and plan on filling out the remainder when the market has stopped going up. I will probably use the 60 min charts to find an entry, unless they are stopped out before.

Mkt internals

Mkt internals are turning bearish with TRIN over 100. also the ADD has dropped like a stone from +2300 to +1500, Tick has turned negative too. Sumpthin's up.

Todays bounce

Todays bounce is pretty pathetic. This is nicely burning off the oversold situation setting up a new leg down. Yesterday also gave a bullish divergence on the McClellan Oscillator, however the MO is heading for a down trendline and unless it breaks thru, this romp to the downside is just beginning. Too many bears are looking for the this bounce and the market seems to try and make as many people wrong as it can. I also think the 1040 support was too predictable. Some sort of surprise is coming..

VIX market buy confirmed signal today!

Vix closed down confirming the market shift signal back to bullish. Plus mkt bounced off Feb support area. so this could be true. ugh.. here we go again.

Monster gap down this morning

after the dow being down close to 300 and the 1044 low of feb violated on the SnP, the market is bouncing.. at the 1040 level. I would think the next level would be 1020-1030, or 1000 even. at any rate, the TRIN has come down to 100 neutral mark after being up to 220. the ADD has leveled off at -2700 and the tick has turned slighly positive. My feeling is this is just a bounce that will suck in the bottom fishers, only to plunge deeper... or that could also be my wishful thinking. TRIN turning back up again, bearish at 7:20. Unfortunately I failed to pick up 3 big shorts in my georgebailey account that the system gave buys on. The entry was on a gap up day, so I was waiting for better pricing on a pull back of TZA, TWM, and SSG but it never came, now I am about $4k behind the systems where I should be, following them exactly. OIY!

The road to SP 870

1st target 1044, 2nd target 870 by Springheel Jack

The bounce OPEX day

As expected the market bounced back from way oversold. Actually we needed that relief from being deeply oversold. Unless the market closes decisively over 1100, we will most likely take another plunge. All in all, I am quite dissappointed in my systems. Those stops were such a sad situation considering each one of the stocks came roaring back. Meanwhile GDX which is heavy in a loss position is still hanging in there. I would like to see that piece of shit close out the position already. Gold is headed down as far as I'm concerned. At least for a while. Also.. where are the energy shorts? I'm not getting anything there. I did put on the FXP china short ETF and its underwater right away, stop loss not far from the close. Ugh. Not having TZA and TWM I am behind they system by about 500 now. I coulda got in today but was thinking this market was gonna go even higher so waited.. and missed it again. on the other hand, I think its best to be not much in anything over the weekend. Too crazy lately.

Russell 2k bounce

The RUT bounced right off its 200 day ma. even tho the SnP broke thru it's decisively at 1102. At this point the charts are still aimed down. I would think we will make new lows yet, at least tag the 1050 - 1044 area of the SP, low so far today is 1055.90. And a close on the dow below 10k. But the internals are quite bullish TRIN at 61 both nas and sp. ADD at +1300 and positive tick and rising.

I hate stops!

Blown out of 3 longs on the open.. only to see the market come roaring back. I knew this would happen yet you have to take the stops cause the one time you don't it will just keep going and you will buy the farm. Shit! HMIN, IMAX, and TPX all blown out near the LOD.

I think its the law of the universe. When you take a stop, the stock goes straight up, when you don't take a stop, it continues to plummet. Just amazing phenomena.

L~O~D Yeah baby!!

Market closed on the Low of the Day!! WOOHOO! Where are all those dip buyers now?? Feel the pain suckers! This bubble has been long time coming to burst.

When the May 6th intraday spike low is taken out on a closing basis.. the fun will really begin.
1065.79 SnP
9872 dow
637.69 Russell 2000 RUT (less than 3 bucks away)

another good day!

I like these moves. better than sideways boredom. Down or up doesnt make any difference as long as your on the right side of the move. Unfortunatley my system got long a bunch of stocks when the bull run was way long in the tooth.. but had to take the trades cause you never know. I thought this thing was way overbought 6 months ago.

Noriel Roubini was just on cnbc and pointed out all the huge macro global economic issues facing the world. He suggests reduce exposure/risk be in cash or short term govt securities from solid countries like canada or germany. Notice he didnt mention US.

10 minutes to go and the market is selling down hard again. I still havent been able to pick up that WMV at the open price. Dow down 300

Offloading risk

All the hedgefunds and large moneymanagers are offloading risk. Selling all their profitable investments including stocks and gold. Times are too strange right now for them to keep risking all their profits to date. I think this dip will be a resumption of the 10 year bear market. Way too much uncertainty in the world.. of course when IS there certainty. And what about 2012??

turn around, after lunch

shortly after lunchtime in nyc.. the market hit the lows dow down 350, and then came roaring back. However, TRIN is still deeply bearish at 205 and the ADD -2900 but the tick has turned positve.

RUT stopped right above big support from the 5/6 plunge at 638, bouncing at 641. I think it will take out the 638 and I have a Fibinocci projection of going to at least 613.53, but more likely 573 (a 138.2%). For the SnP that price projection would be 1044 and then 995

little bounce

Not much of a bounce at all. just 1095 and now continueing with new lows. Nas down 68, dow down 260. I still havent been able to pick up the TWM and TZA, also the SSG (semi conductor short) has gone nothing but up. However at 1084 we are near the area of congestion 1080 and below. should bounce from here.

20 min into the open

After that huge gap down, I am waiting to buy the TWM and TZA as I figure the market will bounce here and those will be considerably cheaper. Probably the bounce should go to 1100, whereas I will start to buy these ETFs. TRIN has rolled over and now is droppping, at 156 (was as high as 600). ADD is leveling off at -2644 and the tick has turned up and almost positive. Look for a nice bounce to sell into.

Big down open!

sold out of my EDZ on the open. 12% today alone. nice trade made 25% in 3 days. Also bought the IMAX on the open and saved myself a bunch by waiting. Next stop is 1044 SnP. thats what we need to see taken out. but support at the 1080-1044 area.

Market short buy signals

System gave buy signal on

TWM (ultra short russel 2k)
TZA (3x small cap bear)
SSG (ultra short semiconductors)

GDX - SLV buys?

GDX bounced right off its 50 day ema, so did SLV ... could be a buy here, My systems are already long both of these.

the last 15 minutes

Internals are bullish with TRIN at 47 and dropping. ADD still negative but off its lows considerably and the tick positive. Snp was down almost 20 and now its only down 3.42. dow's loss was more than cut in half. I was going to pick up the IMAX at a better price than 19.10 but got greedy and kept lowering my limit order until it bounced and left me behind. On the other hand, the 60 min IMAX charts look bearish to me and I think this is just a 50/20 bounce, whereas it will then continue its downward slide. I have a limit order in at 18.60 right at support but frankly my gut says it will go down to 17.50 - 18 which I should ignore since more often than not my intuition stinks.. thats why I use a system with rules. market turning lower a bit now with 10 minutes to go.

Internals wierd

The Trin is 44, very bullish with the dow down 135. but the nas trin is 207, very bearish and the ADD is -2200, tick down 1142... bearish. I'd love to see the SnP break below 1100, now at 1106. The 200 day ema is at 1102, important for the bulls for that to hold

break down

SnP broke support at the 1114 area. now down 12.54 at 1108, dow down 126. The RUT is even down more but headed for a Renko trendline at 670. will it hold?

2nd 15 minutes down

Crazy market.. now the SnP tagged new lows for the day. down 4 and once again bouncing off the bottom. Buy it at 1115 and sell it at 1123. easy money you would think.

First 15 minutes

Looks to be a "fade the open" day today. Very bullish internals with the TRIN at .50, same for nas trin. Decliners beating advancers by -1256 but apparently the volume is behind the uppers.

got stopped out of PETD (good thing) and CREE (bad thing .. which immediately bounced and is up on the day)... but thats just the way it is. Consistency is the important thing otherwise its whackamole.

We are at the bottom of the trading range.. probalby be an up day. TZA is dropping like a stone, now down 1.25% (was up 2.5%).

SPY .. dmi

The SPY weekly DMI has turned negative far deeper than any time since 3/09. I think key support is at 104.58 which would also take out the low on that 1,000 point day. The weekly 50/10 LRC is about to cross over bearish which would be the first time since 3/09 and usually trails the move. the 25/5 has already crossed.

Emerging mkts heading south

Since mid April the emerging mkts ETF EEM made a double top and is now headed south. Key support is at 36.20 and if that breaks it could preface a nice bear move in our market. minus DMI has taken over, very bearish.

China too, with the FXI, if it breaks below 36.24 we could see a nice run down. It actually rolled over in January and merely bounced back to the LRC line then has been selling off for the last 5 weeks.

TPX

Tempurpedic looks like a double top here. if it breaks thru 28, look out. Its been on an incredible run from 3.84 (3/09) to 36.29 last week. the 50 day ema did not show suppot on the 6th but if it holds its at 32ish.

bounce

double bottom on the SnP on both 3 min and 60 min. if it takes out 1150 then some more upside. now at 1121

Terrible tuesday

First thing out of the chute this morning, the little dog, Biggs, gets blasted in the face by a skunk. Kate washes him 3 times in tomatoe juice. I get back from the gym and of course she has me wash all my clothes (skunk and sweat). I go down to the office connect with the market, and hear this whooshing sound. go into the garage and see the utility tub overflowing, two inches of water already on the floor and something pouring out from behind the frig. Turns out to be an old drain for the old washer and dryer location. Clothes washer water coming out. Turn it off, and after trying everything in my arsenal.. about 2.5 hours later.. I give up and call a plumber. Looks like its the main drain going into the septic. and since the utility sink is the lowest part of the house thats where everything backs up. So.. there ya have it. What a way to start the day.

Meanwhile I see the market has turned down. TRIN very bearish at 174 and nas trin at 213, however the tick appears to be turning up as the trin is turning down. dow down 35, SnP down 6.6, nas is down even more at -21. The plunge in building permits seems to have helped the SRS a bit, although the more they build, the more inventory and that certainly won't help the situation. I still feel that someday SRS is gonna be $100 at least.

EDZ buy signal

I have a buy signal on EDZ the triple bear emerging market ETF. Long term charts look like its basing so I would take it. The system on this one is a 85% winner. average win is 10%. Profit factor is 12.87(huge). Average time in a trade is 3.3 days.

Also when I got back from vacation I found the system had a bunch of longs, which I added on today and took a beating. EDZ will help hedge the portfolio a bit since all I have bearishis SRS.

long:
CREE
GDX
HMIN
IMAX
INCY
PETD
SNDK
TPX (tempurpedic... our choice in crib)

Lots of buy signals

My IFT scanner is giving a mkt buy. so did the VIX yesterday. However its sitting right below the 50 day ema around 1173. Also the 52wk hi and los broke to the negative side last week and the LRCs are aiming down, if they break thru zero it could be a game change.

I have buys on:

HMIN
MJN
VIT
INCY

all the inverse ETFs have turned quite negative... unfortunately.

I still have SRS in the portfolio, heavily underwater, but now it has a COD stop (change of direction) could be stopped out tomorrow unless the market tanks from the getgo.

Small caps kick ass!

The Russell 2000 (RUT) has blasted thru the 61.8% retracement and next fib level is 76.4% at 720. 10 more points. On the other hand there is a trendline around 713 and resistance at 712... so we shall see.

Also I see the SnP is approaching the H&S neckline at 1177.50.

Had buys on TPX, SNDK, GDX today. Also HD but didnt take it, system is only 63% winner on that stock and the average winnings per month arent enough to risk the money.

VIX buy signal

With a lower close on the VIX today a market buy signal is in effect. the close was so close to yesterdays close that I wonder if it will work out.

I hate stop losses

IMAX was stopped out at the LOD (low of the day) always a heart warmer. SKS dipped a tiny bit further then rallied, its up 3.6% today. But ya gotta take em, no matter what. Evidence being my long term investment in TZA. My big mistake.

turn down

SnP turned back right at its 50 day ema around 1170. TRIN is rising dramatically to 173, bearish. So is the nas trin. ADD has dropped almost 1000 issues advanceing. I'd like to see it take out the 1147 support and then we could be on our way down. looks like the roll over happened around 11pst. by noon it had bounced back the mean or linear regression line and is now heading down again.

tchewsday

12 minutes into the open and the SnP support of 1147 held up. dow only down 61 when it was down 100 premarket in the futures. volatility is definitely back in. yesterday was step 2 of the VIX market buy signal. We will have to see if that is confirmed today or not. System bought SLV today on the open, got stopped out of IMAX and SKS longs. so now I am weighted 3 to 1 in favor of the short side.

More up monday..

the Rut did almost a 50% retrace. high was 690, 50% = 692. The SnP did a nice 61.8% retrace. Could be all done here. 1160s is a big thick area of resistance. the dow stopped right at resistance of 10845 too.

Got a buy signal on SLV (silver long etf). the system hits 85% on these so I will take it, plus long term is ok, aimed up.

The Trins are pretty blown out at .57 and .50 (Q).

The only market shorts I have are SRS and DRV both real estate. Got into DRV today so got a great price. And 3 longs IMAX, JAS, and SKS. This is gonna be fun. :)

Dow up 440, where are those trading curbs? where is the outrage now?

What a bunch of crap. They go on and on investigating the 1k drop last week... its simple... there were no bids! Duhhhhh. This big deal investigation nonsense... Its all bunch of noise to divert the public from worrying about their retirements, 401k etc. They want the public to buy the market not bail. They don't want caution. Its all about buy baby buy, consumer goods, stock, homes... its the american way. 70% of our gdp is based on consumerism. What a great thing to be proud of.

the market bounced to the 1150-1160 area. Perfect place to short the hell out of it. Actually this is what most bears have been praying for. Probably Goldman will hit it here too, just creaming the retail investor.

Prechter predicts the top is in.

In the EWT letter dated April 2010, Robert Prechter is predicting the post crash rally peak to be over within the last two weeks.. or 4/26/10 at SnP 1219.80.

"...we can project a top on this basis between April 15 and May 7, 2010. April 16, by the way, marks the anniversary of the 1930 rally peak. These dates pertain only if the current rally matches its predecessor in percent-of-cycle terms, which is conjecture, but given all the other evidence it seems a reasonable expectation. By this scenerio, the market should peak within three weeks and then fall for six years." -- dated April 16, 2010

No time to buy options

the VIX has gone thru the roof. was 15.50 near end of april... now its 41. Huge premiums on those options. when market settles down, they will totally deflate.

52 week his and los broke down

for the first time the net stocks making 52 week hi's vs. lo's went negative, since last march 09. next test is to see if the averages roll over, or the linear regression curves, and cross below zero.

Record buying climaxes last week

Got this from investors intelligence. check it out

Two weeks ago we published the above chart from Investors Intelligence showing the number of weekly buying and selling climaxes, one of the many valuable indicators they tally. The week ending April 16 saw 467 weekly buying climaxes, which, as we noted then, ranked in II’s top 10 highest readings in their 20+ year data base. It turns out that this extreme was just an appetizer, because last week II reports that there were 1,079 buying climaxes, by far an all-time record. This was the exact opposite reading to that which occurred in March 2009, at the Primary wave 1 (circle) low, when there were 1,010 selling climaxes. A buying climax occurs when a stock makes a new 52-week high and then closes the week lower. A selling climax is the opposite. Climax extremes are thought to represent distribution, from either strong hands to weak (buying climaxes), or weak hands to strong (selling climaxes). A high number of climaxes tend to congregate around market turning points. Whenever any indicator moves to a 20+ year record, one should take notice. This chart strongly suggests that the stock market’s upside potential is limited, even if the major indexes manage to eke out a push above their respective highs of last Thursday-Friday. In our opinion, last week’s upside extreme is a perfect bookend to the March 2009 downside extreme. We think the stock market is transitioning from “up” to “down.”

percent pullback, correction based on lows

dow 12.3%
SnP 12.6%
Nas 13.8%
Qs 18%
RUT 14.5%

exceeded all prior pullbacks in the bull leg since mar 09

holdings

all inverse etf's cashed out today. very nice profits 8%, 11%, 21%, 17%, 24%

remaining longs
IMAX
JAS
SKS
CMCSA
DGP (double gold long ETF)


Buy signals on SRS and DRV both inverse REIT and residential r/e ETFs

Summary

Looks like the high frequency trading caused this extreme 1,000 point move. Also a trader hit the "b" instead of the "m" selling billions instead of millions. whatever.. this market has been way overdue for this and the greek thing has been known about for weeks if not months. major damage done. broke thru 50 day ema. All charts point to buy gold and Yen... sell everything else. except the dollar of course. Also bonds going up but very bubblishcious

Wow! what a historic dump!

this was amazing, wish it would have held longer. all my support levels were so blown out I was freaking trying to get a grip on where it would stop. SnP stopped at 1065. My TZA got up to 8 bucks and I wish I had bailed on my gpanek marketguru account... but it turned so fast. dow was down just shy of 1,000. largest drop in history. huge volume and most all of it on the downside. Trin has steadied out to 138 and nas at 250. bearish but a lot of the oversold was used up on this bounce. I think this is just the beginning of some major market sell offs. The PIIGS thing is going to be bigger than anyone expected. dow only down 300 now with 5 minutes to go. SP down 31

most targets all hit.

4 out of 5 inverse ETF's targets have been hit and they are out. Still long TWM , Closed out FAZ at 14.05 and SDS at 32.27 and SSG at 17.35 tza at 7.69

SnP hit the 50% retrace at 1132 and went below to 1122. next stop would be 1112, then 1100, then 1085. but this just may be it, at least for a while. The RUT which is leading the way down broke thru support at 669

down down 750, snp down 95

Another down day

Dow has pulled back 4.2%, SnP 5.3%, Nas 6.1% and the RUS 7.4% so far. Last correction in RUS in november was 11.5% and in Feb 10.5%. We are into the second week down. the most down weeks since march 09 has been 4. In June/July and in Jan/Feb. Otherwise two in a row is generally tops. So I am interested in whether this moves beyond 2 weeks down, and then will it break 4 weeks down or not.

Greek selloff on the open

Often good to fade the open and sure enough in the first 15 minutes the SnP plunged to 1158 then bounced back strongly. Funny how support is taken out, slightly, hitting all the stops then making an abrupt turn around. Stop losses suck for this reason. Gotta give them lots of cushion. I would think a bounce to 1178 area would be reasonable. The greek thing is not going to go away or get better. Will probably get worse. Spain and/or portugal are about to get downgraded too. The euro is below 1.29 now and getting wallopped. they will probably jetison greek out of the union. I now have a split portfolio with 9 positions, 5 bulls and 4 bears.

End of day signals

XLY (consumer discretionary ETF) got a big sell signal today. Retail reports out later this week, we'll have to see if there is follow thru.

That ERY buy signal (short energy ETF) yesterday seemed doomed with oil breaking thru 85 then but now its lookng quite good up 2.6%

EEM (emerging market ETF) is getting hammered. I would not like to be in the emerging markets now. Those are all bubbles about to burst. also EWW mexico and EWZ brazil all getting hammered.ILF the latin america index.. down 4+%. That BZQ (brazil ultra short) buy signal on the 20th is now up 16%

VXX (vix etf) breaking up above the 50 day ema. wish I had bought options last week.

Buy signal on TZA and TWM both long term down trend tho, but possibly basing.... could be good but not rock solid would rather have them over the 50 day ema.

Nice selloff today! :)

My TZA is up 8%. dow down 225 and SnP down 26 and nas down a whopping 69. On a 60 min basis there seems to be complex H&S patterns pointing to a target of 1144 on SnP and 2377-2383 on the nasdaq. Tim Knight cashed out his big "ultra" shorts and more often than not, he is right, but I am going to hold out for more. I havent even gotten a buy on TZA yet... although my SSG is doing great.