Sell signals coming in..

The 20 min. charts rolled over yesterday along with the relative strength (Rut vs SP), giving a sell signal on the mkt.  Today the 60 and 80 minute charts followed with sells.  the Q's are the strongest and havent quite rolled yet, but when they do, it should be a waterfall.. or not.  Tech is still strong.   Q's closed today where they closed yesterday, whereas the RUT was down 1.2%.  A key range of support is 1115 -1105, then of course, 1100.  We havent even broken 1120 yet.  I will be at the ocean tomorrow... so all hell might break loose.  :)

Greenspan .. contributed greatly to the mess we are in.

click the graphic to better read it.

Toppy indications here, finally.

check this video from perfectstockalert.com

I hope we're done with this move already.

I think this move up and sideways is DONE!  What a boring week.  Market stopped right at the top of its channel/trading range SnP 1131 area.  Volume was ridiculously low.. AGAIN.  Unless the bulls can create some enthusiasm from the public, this little run up is over.  OPEX week was a non event.  SnP closed up today 93 cents, yesterday is closed down 41 cents.  Is that excitement or what?

The SPY is at the top of its acceleration bands and stalling, its RSI bumped up against a trendline from last May, that it generally drops from.   My IFT scans of the entire stock market show the shift to more sell signals than buy signals.  VXX has stabilized and the TRIX on it has turned mkt bearish.   However, the silver/gold ratio is indicating rally.. hmm troublesome.  The relative strength of Russell 2k vs. SnP is still bearish but iffy, its either done with this move, or poised to break up.

At any rate.. I certainly hope the rest of this month is more trending than the last two weeks.  In fact this range has been going on since mid-May with only slight downside bias... and we are at the top of that range right now.

Who is buying this market???

ICI's latest data discloses that in the week ended September 8, domestic funds saw outflows of $2.2 billion, following last week's massive $7.7 billion. And yes, ETFs experienced outflows as well. So far September has experienced nearly $10 billion in outflows, even as the market has ramped by over 6%. Who is buying this shit? Just ask The New York Fed and Citadel: they may have a few pointers (wink wink). This is the 19th sequential outflow from US stocks, and amounts to $65 billion in redemptions for the year. With the market pretty much unchanged YTD, it means that mutual funds can not resort to capital appreciation as a substitute to outflows, and most are on their last breath (Janus: blink twice if you are still alive please). The kicker:the S&P is at the level it was when the outflows began back during the flash crash. If that doesn't restore all your confidence that Uncle Sam will be so good at managing the market (just like he has done with everything else), nothing else will. Throw in a little HFT, a little subpennying, a little Flash trading, a little DMA trading, a little quote stuffing, a little hedge fund clubbing, a little specialist front running, a little daily flash crash in big caps like Nucor Steel, and you can see why next week we will most certainly have our first inflow in 20 weeks. Or not. It doesn't matter. Nobody that is made of carbon, or who doesn't already have direct access to the Fed for zero cost funding, is trading stocks anymore. -- courtesy of zerohedge.com


My view... the market is at the top of its range that it has spent the majority of time for a year now.  so I'm not going to bail on my loser shorts, however, the LRCs are still pointing up so its been quite painful.  SnP has been up 9 of the last 11 days.  I am in the bottom 100 in the latest wall street survivor contest.  Could get a margin call any day now.  Its all quite depressing.  Todays nonsense was disgusting.  Bad econ news and it stayed down for 15 minutes then up the rest of the day.  And even that was jagged and chaotic.  Maybe the stock market is simply not the way to spend my time.

tough market

daily indicators are pointing for a rally here.   80 minute indicators are aimed up but look to be turning down.  shorter term 20 minute charts are aimed down.  I need all these guys to line up in one direction in order to have any confidence in a move.  I have incorporated a new one.. doing relative strength of the Russell 2k vs. the SP.  Small caps seem to lead the way both up or down so it has proven to give a good indication of mkt direction.  here its giving mixed signals too.  60 minute basis pointing down, daily basis pointing up.  go figure...

Why am I still short?

I am still short via inverse ETFs and getting walloped. So I ask myself why. My LRCs on a daily basis have a very wierd configuration whereby the price and longer LRC has crossed up but the shorter LRC is far from it. Usually the order is first a price crossing, then a the shorter crossing the longer, then the longer crossing. Looking at the past I only found two situations like this, one led to a failure and a continuation down, while the other led to a launch on the upside. So go figure.. this is one of the problems with such a subjective indicator based on patterns. I am learning thru experimentation.

Anyway here are the few bearish indications, at least pointing to a pull back to exit my shorts and get long.

• -The ambivalence of the daily LRC patterns described above, combined with the overbought nature of the 80, 60 and even the 20 minutes LRCs.
• -SPY stopped at a down trendline, only slightly broke thru. (Problem is RUT broke thru)
• -Doji star possible top pattern on daily charts
• -natural SP resistance at 1105 area near where it closed. Seems crazy to buy here.
• -McClellan oscialtor on the rise but stopped under/at an old up trendline, usually turns down from there.
• -VIX bollinger band signal almost, but not quite a sell signal.. could be forthcoming.
• -Silver gold ratio far into the low area 62.4 indicating stock mkt turn down
• -4 up days, 3 pretty large, its due for a pullback. I would think to the 1075 area. CCOC odds are for that.
• -RUT just filled a gap on friday, maybe its done for now.
• -LRCs on TRIN have turned bearish
• -IFT on monthly SP has crossed down bearish
• -Weekly LRCs on SP have all turned bearish, down. indicating a bounce in a bear move is all this is.
• -Weekly MACDs are less than zero
• -Weekly INDU IFT is turned down. (but not RUT)
• -DXY daily is aimed up.
• -Bonds have pulled back to support at 2.75% area (10yr)and bounced, could be ready for another run at 2.0% or lower.
• -ECRI still points to double dip, unemployment claims remain high, net loss of jobs in August, auto sales in the toilet along with housing... still too much negative economics to be bullish.

What I would like to see (and my desires mean nothing to the market) would be for a pullback and the LRCs to be definitive one way or the other, I dont care if I'm long or short but I dont want to be fighting the trend like I did the latter part of this week. Lots of fakeouts so I have to be wary of that all the time, which makes it quite the guessing game especially with these overnight gaps. ugh.

LRCs configurations for daily and 80 min (20 min in center) for SP and RUT

The week from hell

WTF! Dow runs 450 points up in 3 days. geezus. Its getting to the point were its deadly to hold overnight. After being in the top 50 or top 4% in the WallStreetSurvivor August contest, I am now almost last in the september one. Slow connection and too much java crap on their site, I was unable to cancel some short etfs resulting in being the wrong way in this rally. Even tho this awful rally has been strong, the daily indicators have been somewhat iffy so I held off from bailing. Now after 4 days up, its due for a pullback so I'm gonna wait for that, hopefully on tuesday. 20 minute, 80 minute, 5 minute.. everything pointed up, except the daily and weekly. Daily has just given the setup to buy signal, but not the trigger yet. I made 12% last month, right now I am down 7% in just these few days of september. I need a beer.

I'm still trying to figure this mkt out...

Mutual fund outflows now reaches 17 consecutive weeks

$54 billion has been pulled out of the mutual funds so far this year and its accelerating.  4.3 B last week vs. 2.7B the week before.  Equity fund liquidity ratios are at an all time low of 3.4%.   Baby boomers are way to old to put on the risk that is in the market right now.  Short interest is low too at 4.3% of SP market cap, so who's gonna be buying when the market falls?

Turning point??

Lots of mixed messages within the batch of indicators I watch.  Market looks to be at a decision point, probably tomorrow with the employment report, it will break one way or the other.  short term indicators are pointing up, whether they fall back and the mkt continues down or changes trend to up... is yet to be determined.  This is the dead zone where one can get hammered like I did yesterday.  holding overnight can be deadly.   All the more reason to day trade only.