Thursday, May 6, 2010
Summary
Looks like the high frequency trading caused this extreme 1,000 point move. Also a trader hit the "b" instead of the "m" selling billions instead of millions. whatever.. this market has been way overdue for this and the greek thing has been known about for weeks if not months. major damage done. broke thru 50 day ema. All charts point to buy gold and Yen... sell everything else. except the dollar of course. Also bonds going up but very bubblishcious
Wow! what a historic dump!
this was amazing, wish it would have held longer. all my support levels were so blown out I was freaking trying to get a grip on where it would stop. SnP stopped at 1065. My TZA got up to 8 bucks and I wish I had bailed on my gpanek marketguru account... but it turned so fast. dow was down just shy of 1,000. largest drop in history. huge volume and most all of it on the downside. Trin has steadied out to 138 and nas at 250. bearish but a lot of the oversold was used up on this bounce. I think this is just the beginning of some major market sell offs. The PIIGS thing is going to be bigger than anyone expected. dow only down 300 now with 5 minutes to go. SP down 31
most targets all hit.
4 out of 5 inverse ETF's targets have been hit and they are out. Still long TWM , Closed out FAZ at 14.05 and SDS at 32.27 and SSG at 17.35 tza at 7.69
SnP hit the 50% retrace at 1132 and went below to 1122. next stop would be 1112, then 1100, then 1085. but this just may be it, at least for a while. The RUT which is leading the way down broke thru support at 669
down down 750, snp down 95
SnP hit the 50% retrace at 1132 and went below to 1122. next stop would be 1112, then 1100, then 1085. but this just may be it, at least for a while. The RUT which is leading the way down broke thru support at 669
down down 750, snp down 95
Another down day
Dow has pulled back 4.2%, SnP 5.3%, Nas 6.1% and the RUS 7.4% so far. Last correction in RUS in november was 11.5% and in Feb 10.5%. We are into the second week down. the most down weeks since march 09 has been 4. In June/July and in Jan/Feb. Otherwise two in a row is generally tops. So I am interested in whether this moves beyond 2 weeks down, and then will it break 4 weeks down or not.
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Greek selloff on the open
Often good to fade the open and sure enough in the first 15 minutes the SnP plunged to 1158 then bounced back strongly. Funny how support is taken out, slightly, hitting all the stops then making an abrupt turn around. Stop losses suck for this reason. Gotta give them lots of cushion. I would think a bounce to 1178 area would be reasonable. The greek thing is not going to go away or get better. Will probably get worse. Spain and/or portugal are about to get downgraded too. The euro is below 1.29 now and getting wallopped. they will probably jetison greek out of the union. I now have a split portfolio with 9 positions, 5 bulls and 4 bears.
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
End of day signals
XLY (consumer discretionary ETF) got a big sell signal today. Retail reports out later this week, we'll have to see if there is follow thru.
That ERY buy signal (short energy ETF) yesterday seemed doomed with oil breaking thru 85 then but now its lookng quite good up 2.6%
EEM (emerging market ETF) is getting hammered. I would not like to be in the emerging markets now. Those are all bubbles about to burst. also EWW mexico and EWZ brazil all getting hammered.ILF the latin america index.. down 4+%. That BZQ (brazil ultra short) buy signal on the 20th is now up 16%
VXX (vix etf) breaking up above the 50 day ema. wish I had bought options last week.
Buy signal on TZA and TWM both long term down trend tho, but possibly basing.... could be good but not rock solid would rather have them over the 50 day ema.
That ERY buy signal (short energy ETF) yesterday seemed doomed with oil breaking thru 85 then but now its lookng quite good up 2.6%
EEM (emerging market ETF) is getting hammered. I would not like to be in the emerging markets now. Those are all bubbles about to burst. also EWW mexico and EWZ brazil all getting hammered.ILF the latin america index.. down 4+%. That BZQ (brazil ultra short) buy signal on the 20th is now up 16%
VXX (vix etf) breaking up above the 50 day ema. wish I had bought options last week.
Buy signal on TZA and TWM both long term down trend tho, but possibly basing.... could be good but not rock solid would rather have them over the 50 day ema.
Nice selloff today! :)
My TZA is up 8%. dow down 225 and SnP down 26 and nas down a whopping 69. On a 60 min basis there seems to be complex H&S patterns pointing to a target of 1144 on SnP and 2377-2383 on the nasdaq. Tim Knight cashed out his big "ultra" shorts and more often than not, he is right, but I am going to hold out for more. I havent even gotten a buy on TZA yet... although my SSG is doing great.
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