Bearish signals

Along with the bearish divergence on the McClellan oscillator, here is a chart of the wilshire 5000 showing all kinds of bearish implications. When it drops it usually drops quickly. Will you bulls retain those profits? This chart is thanks to www.allabouttrends.net

MWJ sell signal

MWJ the triple mid-cap bull ETF gave its first sell signal on todays close, since it gave a buy in mid Feb. It closed at 115.03

Turn around thursday??

SP went and tagged 1180 then dropped 15 points to close lower than the low yesterday at 1165.74. Systems lost another bunch and are down 3130 on the close. It will really be interesting to see how they get out of this mess. I have tested many, many times and stop losses do not work. sometimes trailing stops work but I have found its better to have "change of situation" or trend change stops to work the best. I just wonder when they are going to kick in. so far only one stock has this kind of stop and it didnt do so badly today. DRWI I was getting sell signals across the whole oil patch, I shoulda bailed at break even on the ERX triple energy short. it closed down 4.5% after it was actually up 2%

Still learning after all these years

I have 10 systems positions on and they are down 2627 and getting worse by the minute. 3 of the 10 were mistakes. I now have a new filter. I look at the weekly charts and do not take any long if the 50/10 LRC is pointed down. this would have been KONG, ERX, and DRWI. the 3 total 2600 loss. Not only should I not have taken these but also, KONG was buying open (which gapped hugely) after a big bar up, way over the ATR. I should have waited for the pull back. Anyway.. I just want to bail on these puppies but now I guess its better to see how the system deals with these losers. How bad will it get before the system bails on them. Also... being long this late in the market run is suicide anyway. gee.. now down only 2400. Well this is one of the reasons I am working out the bugs in virtual time instead of real money. its all good.

the 2 sweeties

the 2sweeties are not so sweet. This is the retracement level service I have been subscribing to. They have done just terrible over the last couple months. Keeping me out of the up move thinking it was gonna turn, and getting out too soon on the down move thinkng it was gonna bounce. I think their RLs do more damage than help. Anyway.. I think they are from the old USSR, at least thats the accent that comes thru their emails. Just a bunch of rude obnoxious bastards. Very russian in my mind. I am terminating the service as soon as the current sub runs out next month.

they say

the market will turn here 1174
or if not then here 1183
and if not then here 1198
and if not then here 1222

WTF!! you can get creamed in the meantime,with all these possibilities. Yes they add probabilities but you act on any that are over 50% and all those above are over 50% probable. What a joke... Also they think that history will repeat itself.. maybe.. maybe not. maybe this is an all new time. new normal. Anyway... I was amazed at what assholes they were.

After the vote..

I like the way the right (wrong) was pointing to the stock futures being down because of the health care bill passing before the market opened ... but now that the nasdaq is up a whopping 25 points you don't hear anything. The health care stocks actually were up from the getgo.. gee I wonder why. :). could it be because the bill favors them tremendously. I wish they would all be put out of business and we would simply have universal healthcare... govt run. oh well...

This market is getting extremely stale. I am following 40 stocks with my totemp system. basically most of them are neutral waiting for the next push one way or the other. The ones that I am in now, are not looking great. they are mainly secondary moves that don't show as much promise as a fresh move.

I am long in georgebailey:
RAX
KONG (really bought the farm on this, s/h waited for a pullback, not the open)
ERX
CTEL
AHL

the only ETF is ERX 3x energy long. a little counterintuitive since I am getting other signals to sell oil and commodities. but I am ignoring all else and going with the system to see how it plays out. same with KONG. I am anxious to see how it handles this and how bad a hit it takes if it does bail.

Options

My current system seems to be working just great. no optimization needed for entry. its the exit that needs tweeking for each stock or etf. So i wanted to look back and see about my decisions to buy QQQ puts in Feb using my system. I can see that all indications were pointing up for the market at that time and I was making that age old mistake of top picking. ugh... boy did I take a beating on those. breakeven .67 current price is .05. 42 april puts with the Qs at 47 now. This aint gonna happen. best I can do is pray to recover half the cost and roll out to June or july. but most importantly I now have a good enough system to keep me from doing this top and bottom picking and instead wait for the buy or sell signal. Its gonna take patience but I have been burned so many times by thinking I could tell when the market might turn. Look at my gpanek account in market gure. its all about top and bottom picking and its decimated. I had TNA the entire time the market was going down, then bailed with a loss when it woulda made a ton. after I bailed I started accumulating TZA with an average price of 9 and its at 7.30 right now. If I had followed the new system I woulda made a bundle. live and learn... hopefully.