Friday, May 28, 2010
Whats gonna happen this weekend?
With the 3 day weekend coming up, There could be a korean war, or the BP extravaganza could fail, or more bad news on the Euro front, or more PIIGS problems... all could send the market down. But what could happen that would send the market up on Tuesday??? Seems like the risk is to the downside.
Fake out friday
Lots of head fakes today. Confused the hell outta me. Broke one of my rules and sold off HMIN with a 12% profit as it was dropping only to see it reverse and come back a buck! I know better than to do that. Sell strength, buy weakness. Bought a shitload of longs luckily after the open so I got a better price, but none of them have done well. Meanwhile I want to balance this portfolio a bit going into the weekend. right now I am 35% short and would like that to be closer to 50% and since i am not fully into TZA and TWM, I am wanting to put some more on but keep thinking I should save some bullets left for 1125, if we see it. On the other hand what if a korean war starts over the weekend. The longs are gonna be toast, I need some shorts. ugh dow is only down 73 now.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
projection for SnP up move
Who knows were it will stop, however, some things are seeming to line up very nicely. looking at fibonnaci price projections ... 1125 looks like a good target for this up move. Its also right below the 50 day mav and in area of resistance. that would then give a minimum downside of at least 995 which ties out to my other work. Then 945, 915
Buy signals today
Huge up day, didnt think the SnP was gonna break and close above 1100 for awhile but it sure did. some resistance at 1105, then 1125 - 1140, then 1170. It has completed a 50% bounce so far. 61.8% is 1118.
Lots of buy signals today but quite a few are showing long term bear trend therefore not taken:
IT (bought today)
FAA (L/t red - not taken)
WLT (l/t too red)
JAS
SKS
CMCSA
MJN
LCAPA
TCK (l/t too red)
DGP
CCJ (l/t too red)
VIT
RAX (L/t too red)
INCY (l/t too red)
WSM
I only have room to take a couple of these. None of the bearish ETFs have got a COD stop order yet .. so I guess I will be riding them up for a while.
marketguru.com was down all day, except for early morning. didnt matter, I only have half a position in TZA and TWM and plan on filling out the remainder when the market has stopped going up. I will probably use the 60 min charts to find an entry, unless they are stopped out before.
Lots of buy signals today but quite a few are showing long term bear trend therefore not taken:
IT (bought today)
FAA (L/t red - not taken)
WLT (l/t too red)
JAS
SKS
CMCSA
MJN
LCAPA
TCK (l/t too red)
DGP
CCJ (l/t too red)
VIT
RAX (L/t too red)
INCY (l/t too red)
WSM
I only have room to take a couple of these. None of the bearish ETFs have got a COD stop order yet .. so I guess I will be riding them up for a while.
marketguru.com was down all day, except for early morning. didnt matter, I only have half a position in TZA and TWM and plan on filling out the remainder when the market has stopped going up. I will probably use the 60 min charts to find an entry, unless they are stopped out before.
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Mkt internals
Mkt internals are turning bearish with TRIN over 100. also the ADD has dropped like a stone from +2300 to +1500, Tick has turned negative too. Sumpthin's up.
Todays bounce
Todays bounce is pretty pathetic. This is nicely burning off the oversold situation setting up a new leg down. Yesterday also gave a bullish divergence on the McClellan Oscillator, however the MO is heading for a down trendline and unless it breaks thru, this romp to the downside is just beginning. Too many bears are looking for the this bounce and the market seems to try and make as many people wrong as it can. I also think the 1040 support was too predictable. Some sort of surprise is coming..
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
VIX market buy confirmed signal today!
Vix closed down confirming the market shift signal back to bullish. Plus mkt bounced off Feb support area. so this could be true. ugh.. here we go again.
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