Feb is gone

Well the market was up for February.. so odds are that it will be down in March, at least according to the 2sweeties. Frustrating last half of the week. I overode my new system for exits 4 times and in every case, got out way too soon. well, not every case.. actually on FAS it did sell off hard just shy of my original target of 76 (hit 75.95). but on KOL, it was an iffy buy, so I sold it at a small loss, only to see it rally. And on UMY, i did the same thing, only to see it run up. Then on NYX I got out with 3% profit, only to see it run up another 1%. Of course, the one I hung on to, ERY the energy short, is way underwater about 5% but hasnt hit the stop yet. I shoulda used a 1% stop since it was iffy right from the beginning. Anyway.. I still see a cycle low this coming week, but the market does whatever it wants regardless of what I think.

Wednesday.. dulldrums

Market was up, dow up 90+ but basically a dull day. No umph in the bulls. Elliot wave is pointing out that using Ticks the market is the most overbought since sept. 16 2009. Its overbought and didnt do diddly. It cannot break the 1115 area. I am seeing gold setting up for a good short. I would do it via the ETF DZZ which is triple gold short. I also am watching ZSL which is ultra short silver, both are setting up a buy signal any day now. Meanwhile the only bullish ETF I am holding now is FAS and I plan on bailing at 76.50 cause I am just too nervous about this market here, on the other hand, I could see it going to 79ish. May just sell off half first. I am also looking at buying the emerging market shorts like EDZ (3x). It just needs to break above 6 to start taking off. Waiting for a definitive buy on these too. Another possibly buy coming up soon is for DUG, ultra Oil and gas short. I am waiting a definitive buy or else a dip near the lows (<9)on TZA so I can load up in my emaciated gpanek account. so maybe one more run for 1115 could do it. Oh, another thing.. it looks like we are due for a 82day cycle low on march 3rd. Lets see if that stuff works.

Not full blast bear yet

I got stopped out of many of my bullish positions today. Gave back a bunch of profits. I decided to move my breakeven floor to 5% and my 50% trail to kick in at 10% profit. I was giving back too much. kind of a heartbreak but all part of the development of a system. The market was way overbought and due for a pullback, I shoulda closed my bull positions yesterday. oh well. I don't think this is the beginning of a major selloff, although I did get out of TNA and started to accumulate TZA on my gpanek marketguru account. I have still not gotten a sell signal on the market. Thats why I think it has to go up and test the recent highs, maybe get to 1122ish, then run down heavy. I probably shoulda taken some meager profits on my Q puts also... but after last time getting out waaaaaaaaay too early I decided to hold on for something more significant, so I will most likely go back underwater on them for a while.... hopefully not a long while.

Where oh where are we now?

As a summary of recent market activity... the market began its selloff around 1/20, then bottomed on 2/5 very similar to last July. The bears got excited only to see the drop stop and start melting up again. I thought there would be big resistance at 1104 and bought Q puts there. But no... on it went to the 1112 area. So next turning point would be 1115ish and then 1120's. beyond that we will probably see a test of the old highs at 1150. I do not think it will break out above there. In fact, I my feeling is that 1122ish is the last high in this run. Meanwhile, my system says be long so on my georgebailey account at www.marketgurus.com I am in 6 ETFs and 1 stock.

DGP (gold long)
EWZ (brazil stock mkt long)
FAS (financial long)
GDX (gold miners long)
KOL (coal stocks long)
UYM (basic materials long)

NYX NYSE Euro Next (whatever that is??)

Since this bounce stalled right around this high probability turning point, I was nervous about holding these positions, especially after about 5 up days.. but i figured I would just raise the stops and wait for a sell signal. Just hope I dont have to give back all the profits. Also there appears to be a 41 day cycle low coming up around March 1st. It will be interesting to see if by following these 5 indicators, I will be on the right side of the move and the trades will be efficient enough to catch the majority of the moves.

Meanwhile countries are moving towards default, and so are states and municipalities. All of which are ominous signs for the economy. Mortgage defaults should be on the rise over the next several months after the mass of mortgage adjustments coming in March. Real estate will take another big hit. This coming week outta be interesting.

The market's on Meth!

per mole.."Equities today seem to have turned themselves into the equivalent of a juvenile beer bonging crack snorting party animal. Start with Jaegermeister, sniff some glue, then comes the oxygen, pop some downers, some uppers, a venti shot of expresso, then home for some hot action play fueled by Ecstasy." If you took break outs you got hosed. of course my stops once hit, the market reversed. amazing how that happens. from now, I will wait after the number is touched before exiting. Stops suck!

Grease

Its all about Greece today... and whether they can get some backing. Euro is up, buck is down, stocks are up around the world but tentative. CNBC is monitoring it and nothing definitive yet. Discussion of comparing greece to california and both of their potential banckruptcys. I got in half my VXX but the 60 minute charts are still pointing down so I am waiting to buy the rest when that resolves. 2 and 5 minute have turned up, and daily of course is giving a buy. I tend to overlay focus on getting the best price.. which more often than not screws me up. SP is up 17 but hasn't hit its target of 1092 where there is a 92% probability that it will turn down again. Id like to see that then load up on the VXX

Finally a bounce

Who would have thought I would be rooting for an up move but I want to get more short positions on and need the bounce. Finally today it did, SnP was up about 15 but this market cannot sustain the up move. Nobody is interested. Too many worries, plus this was nothing more than a bubble over the last 10 months. a rally based on bullshit. I coulda got my VXX at 32 but no,... had to wait for more bounce. now its at 33 and rising fast. damn. oh well... my rule number one is do not chase. I have gotten totally hosed everytime I do that. Anyway.. this market was quite oversold and we should still get more upside, especially with some short covering above these highs. I will wait some more. My TZA is doing really well, holding up strong even in light of this early morning rally. Dow is only up 72 now. geezus the bulls have left town. they cant get anything going. Goodbye to everyones 401k!

Another bearish day is over

Very negative internals. TRIN 1.90 AD/DE -881, tick trending down. sold off in the last half hour. dow under 10k dropped over 100. its the soveriegn debt issue of the PIIGS still, however, those are fundamental excuses. its time to go... down!

Todays buys

I am holding DRV (real estate bear) and looking to buy VXX below 32 if possible. DRV, I am a little nervous about since the TRIX is not real compellingly bullish.

Who?

I thought the Who was absolutely terrific at the superbowl yesterday. They couldnt have been better and did not lose a step over these last 40 years. GREAT performance!

Monday, monday...

Booooooooooooring. The bulls cant capitalize off their late friday rally, at all. I'm a bit surprised, since for the last 10 months every dip was a buying opportunity. So where are they now? I'm still waiting for a bounce to get heavily short. On the other hand if it sells off to 970-1000 I probably will take off TZA, then wait for a bounce to reload. SnP now down 0.77.... boy doesnt that just make ya wanna yawn!

key reversal day - s/b up monday

today was key reversal day. the hammer candlestick. question is how high will it bounce. lots of resistance at 1100. if it went up to the previous highs would be fine with me. great shorting op. looking at weekly/monthly charts.. there is a monster double top formation. once those lows of 666 taken out on SnP, its headed for 400 easy.

2sweeties

Well the RL's screwed me once again. the RL at 1060 was stopped out, so I was waiting for 1035... never happened and all the profit I was in on TZA went out the window in the last half hour. very frustrating. I knew there would be a bounce here but I was looking for a turnaround at a lower spot. So now.. I wait for a run up, so I can get on the puts. meanwhile my current position will go back into big loss with no money to buy options on TZA. So far its an 8.3% pullback on the dow, 9.2 on SnP, 9.7% on nasdaq, and 10.6% on russell 2000.Is this all there is!!!?? I would think not.

A week later... Friday again

Well the market has continued its downslide. Can't seem to catch a bid. however, its quite oversold at this point and could bounce off the 1060 Retracement level or go to the next one at 1034, which could be best. that one has a 100% probability of being it. Then a bounce to 1100ish, and then another nice dump-a-roonie. At that point i can load up on puts on the Q's and SDS, also TZA if I end up selling some off at 1034. I hate to take off much short since I dont have the puts in place as of yet. Bin Laden is threatening and ya never know when he could strike sending the market into a huge tumble unexpectedly. I wanna be short for that. I made that mistake at 911, and was long when my systems were telling me to be short so instead of making abundle, i lost a ton. lunch is over in nyc now.. so lets see if it rallies in the second half or sells off hard. I am getting some bullish divergences in the MacClellan Oscillator daily calling for a bounce, but some major confirmations of the down move in longer term weekly indicators.