Saturday, February 20, 2010

Where oh where are we now?

As a summary of recent market activity... the market began its selloff around 1/20, then bottomed on 2/5 very similar to last July. The bears got excited only to see the drop stop and start melting up again. I thought there would be big resistance at 1104 and bought Q puts there. But no... on it went to the 1112 area. So next turning point would be 1115ish and then 1120's. beyond that we will probably see a test of the old highs at 1150. I do not think it will break out above there. In fact, I my feeling is that 1122ish is the last high in this run. Meanwhile, my system says be long so on my georgebailey account at www.marketgurus.com I am in 6 ETFs and 1 stock.

DGP (gold long)
EWZ (brazil stock mkt long)
FAS (financial long)
GDX (gold miners long)
KOL (coal stocks long)
UYM (basic materials long)

NYX NYSE Euro Next (whatever that is??)

Since this bounce stalled right around this high probability turning point, I was nervous about holding these positions, especially after about 5 up days.. but i figured I would just raise the stops and wait for a sell signal. Just hope I dont have to give back all the profits. Also there appears to be a 41 day cycle low coming up around March 1st. It will be interesting to see if by following these 5 indicators, I will be on the right side of the move and the trades will be efficient enough to catch the majority of the moves.

Meanwhile countries are moving towards default, and so are states and municipalities. All of which are ominous signs for the economy. Mortgage defaults should be on the rise over the next several months after the mass of mortgage adjustments coming in March. Real estate will take another big hit. This coming week outta be interesting.

No comments:

Post a Comment