ERY buy ??

I got a s/t ERY (triple energy bear ETF) buy, but I wouldn't take it because its still in a long term downtrend. on the other hand, if it runs up a bit, then goes down and tests the lows and bounces that may be the time to take a shot at it with a stop below the lows. low risk, high reward. Lots of questions with the oil sector with the oil spill, lawsuits, huge supply of oil on hand, 86 oil, but the saudis say 80 is the right price and they control it. I dunno.. could be a nice trade. We will see but in the meantime it doesnt meet the requirement of being in a long term up trend or having set a base.

Sector comments

RTH and XRT.. the amazing retail ETFs, which have been rising dramatically while unemployment in total is near 20%, (go figure) finally gave a sell signal. I also notice my SKS and JAS, have turned south. However I will wait for a solid exit since this market seems to bounce back on a regular basis .. no matter what. One day it won't. I think the retail sector is in for a big correction.

Small caps have been on a parabolic liftoff and now are leading the charge down.

HHH internet ETF dropping dramatically, went thru 50 day ema. Next support 59.10

UGA gasoline at new highs along with USL with oil above 86

stocks having big drops all over the place and LCAPA just holds on. amazing, a triple since last august.

Big down day ... again!

RUT broke its Renko support indicating the correction has begun, IMO. RUT is at 716.70 and my downside target is 702-695. I believe the Nas will drop another 75 points at least. I have 30% of portfolio in hedge with FAZ, SSG, and SDS. Dow down 160, SnP down 20 and nas down 50 Whoa! and the RUT down 21.. its the winner for the day with a big 2.87% drop YEAH!

VIX market buy confirmed signal today!

The VIX closed below yesterday confirming the 3 part market buy signal. Key will be if it takes out the previous highs of SnP 1219.80. today closed at 1206.78. I still think it will go to 1225 and that will be where all the bearish divergences start to appear followed by a nice sell off to the 1150 area at least.

Possible bullish VIX signal

the VIX setup is 2/3 into a buy signal. Yesterday closed outside the upper BB and today closed inside. If it closes lower tomorrow that is a buy signal on the mkt. The bollinger bands have greatly expanded meaning to get a bear signal it would have to go into new low territory... extreme optimism and most likely a breakout to significant new highs on the stock market. tomorrow will be interesting.

Buy signals today

I have buy signals on the following (although all of them are in LT down trend and would not be taken)
ZSL (silver short)
QID (Q's short)
SSG )semi conductors short)

already long these inverse ETFs
FAZ
SDS

Gold looks bullish, silver not.
Oil bearish
commodities bearish.
EURO bearish
US dollar bullish

and... the VIX has given a buy signal (bearish for the market)

FOMC zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

bounce today from yesterdays nice 213 dumperino. FOMC said what they always say... no change. big surprise. UNG is out with a 6% profit. Lots of my georgebailey stocks gave back a bunch yesterday only to recoup a gnats ass today. AMD got stopped out for darn near breakeven. Bought SDS (nice hedge even tho long term view is still bearish or basing) and CTEL which sold off right away, but still not too bad, but iffy. GDX exited with a 3% profit .. this one is always the short little wins.

Many Sell signals

Bunch of sell signals here (caveat is that this would be against the longer term trend)

WFMI
BIDU
SPY
SSO
IAI broker dealer ETF
FSLR
WFC
XLU utilities

Short Brazil!

Big buy signal on BZQ, the inverse brazil ETF. Actually the buy came in a week ago at 22, its now 24.45 and breaking out.

Big down day!

Had a buy this morning on FAZ which i didnt take because it wasnt confirmed on the longer term view, however it turned out to be quite profitable. Also the GDX buy of monday turned out to be quite profitable too. SnP closed right at support of 1183.68. at 38.2% retrace would put the tgt down in the 1150 area minimum... also an area of suppport on the REnko charts and regular charts.

new SnP 52 week high

SnP broke thru resistance with a high of 1214.52. will it die here or run to 1225?

LPX Louisiana pacific big winner!

Out of LPX today with 39.5% profit! Just held for 16 days!

TRIN

the TRINs are all moving up, well above 1.00 .. meaning market internals are bearish for Qs and SnP. Market tagged the previous high and dropped... interesting. But will it take out pivot supports? Bought HMIN this morning on georgebailey on the open, but the price i got thru market gurus was almost a buck worse! what the hell is that all about? How hard is it to figure the open price? geezus, thats the kind of shit that makes my blood pressure go up. Yeah, its only virtual, so more reason to get that one right. the open is the open. TPX was out with a 500+ profit, which i didnt participate in, as explained yesterday. As soon as TPX hit its target it sold off. Pretty amazing. target was 36.03 and now its at 34.50.

Thursday... double top? or blast off to 1225 and beyond...

I am getting destroyed on TZA. never thought it would get this bad. Always, too late to bail.

Anyway.. here are the buy signals

TPX had a huge day yesterday so waited for a pullback and missed it. it was up 3% today.
HMIN buy tomorrow on open
FIRE buy tomorrow on open

Finally KONG was stopped out... 2500 loss, and then of course.. it rallied... about 400 bucks of that loss. I am gonna recalibrate the system on that one.. although my new weekly filters would have prevented my entry in the first place.

blood pressure is going up everytime TZA makes new 52week lows. ugh...

this past week..

SnP closed down, but barely.. just couple points. Hardly the correction it needs. Nice sell off on friday due to the GS upset, however, it barely budged the indicators. A lot more needed to give a good sell signal on the markets, or a buy on the inverse ETFs.... lots of resistance to break thru. I wouldnt be surprised if there is a bounce on monday. A double top situation?? would be nice. On the other hand, I'd almost like to see the SnP go to 1225 and get it over with already.... then a nice big 10% at least correction... better if more. Lots of bears excited about friday, however, I think the bulls will take advantage of the dip buying opportunity. Cramer says goldman was long, and not taking a position opposite of the client.. he has inside info. I wonder if he's right about that. His credibility is on the line here.

Goldman Sucks sued by the SEC for fraud YES!!!!!!!!!!!

Finally GS is getting nailed after manipulating this market and being a major maker of this recession and loss of millions of jobs. I say nail the bastards! GS down 15% at one point, now down 12.4%. at 161, needs to take out next support at 147

ISEE huge Bearish warning!

ISEE on the close, equities only 348, which is huge, overly optimistic bullish. If this isnt a setup for a sell off.. I dunno. this sentiment indicator measures call/put volume. this is by far the highest reading in since the beginning of the data 1/06. The 10 day moving average is at 249, another 4+ year high. this could preclude a sell off in a matter of days or weeks, but generally within a month.

Thursday signals

Buy for tomorrow on open
PETD

exited today:
ERX 16% profit
TPX 4% profit

Todays Buy signals

Buy on the open tomorrow..

IT
CMCSA

Blow off top??

Put call ratio is .34x today. It has been this low 3 times over the last decade. In January 2010 incidentally put call was .47x. Everyone is buying! Buy, buy buy... oil, gold, stocks, bonds, anything and everything is going up! except my account. down, down down... for now.

RL turn point is 1208.8, we are at 1208.3. I think it will get to 1225, unfortunately that is around where I will get a margin call and have to close the position. I am already at that point but havent received the nasty email.. yet.

Even duller monday.. zzzzzzzzzzzz

More melt up. Have a buy tomorrow on the open for JAS, also have op. to get into AMD since its right at the buyin price a couple days ago 9.44, may try that. Market is overbought but its been overbought for many weeks now so what. I used to think the more weeks up, the higher the probability that it will come down... well, not if you believe in trend. the stronger the trend, the more probability the trend will continue.. not indefinitely but until it doesnt any more. The RL people have been saying dont go long here for several weeks now. they are waiting for that pullback. hmmm will it ever come? Will it come in time to save me from a margin call on TZA?? My Q 42 puts are so far gone, I don't even have hope for them. there would have to be a major attack on the usa or some such thing to cause this market to sink so low, so fast. ERX got out at the high, but it was either a bad tick or some strange huge order that happened right after the market closed. I had to adjust the ATR multiple so that it would still be long since that was bogus.

Dull Friday...

SLV cashed out at its target price.. 5.3% profit. 7 trading days. Definitely coulda made more, but all in all these moves in silver are generally short pops. Due to those characteristics of this etf the system uses a small multiple of ATRs as the target. Seems like nothing to move the market one way or the other. Earnings may give an excuse for it to move next week.

Position inventory

Here are the system positions right now, the top ten of which are at http://www.marketguru.com/georgebailey

TPX
TCK
SKS
LPX
KONG
KOL
JAH
ERX
CREE
CLNE

(SYSTEM LONG but not on george bailey due to not enough funds for more than 10 positions at $10k)
AHL
SLV
KRE
RGLD
FAS
SSO
EWZ
DGP
TBT
FIRE
KOPN

Yet another up day..

big turn around. dow up 37, sp up 5 - 15 minutes before the close. market internals have been bullish all day, even when market was down. Trin never got over 1.00 and running a bullish .60 now. adv vs declinining issues gone postive now with more ups than downs. Tick is positive.

Sell off???

I dont think this is the sell off we have been waiting for. its just not powerful enough on the downside. It seems to me the market is not made up of zillions of buyers and sellers but really just large dealers, goldmansucks etc... trading amongst themselves. Looking to entice the little guy, the retail investors, bringing them in only to set up the pump and dump routine. If the market is being manipulated by a relative few.. then will the normal, traditional technical analysis tools even work? At any rate.. the brief selloff this morning is now gone and the market is on the upside once again.

Pullback time

I have been seeing a ton of indications that the pull back we have been waiting for was about to happen, and it seems to have begun. 6 weeks of up totally screwed my April Q puts which are now worthless. Another $1k down the drain. I tell ya, trading options sucks. Huge leverage but can really be killed with theta melt. I gotta remember to allow at least 4 weeks for each up move, probably half that for the down moves. Now this two day selloff, seems pretty darn weak to me. If we get down to 1150, that may be all we get. Its all about buy the dip now. a crappy 3.5% drop. My systems of course are still long, have exited several but there is still a full plate. needless to say they gave back a ton of profits but are hanging in there. one, HMIN had a trail stop (which mostly do more to take away from profit)at 33.30 and right after it hit the stock jumped back up a buck. This is why I hate stops, and prefer limits/targets. In testing stops and % profit trails, or b/e stops hinder performance. Instead, my core system includes a stop/exit for COT.. change of trend. this can be heartbreaking often as there usually is a bounce but the reversal does eventually turn out to be true and at least the account is not devestated.

Retail sales seem to be strong, but employment is weaker than thought, and greece is still a mess with the swap rates rising dramatically overnight. This will be the first country to go bankrupt. They cannot print money, and have to use the EURO, so no where to go. They can only borrow their way out for so long and its going to all come due. The market has had some increase in volume yesterday on the downside, but not a whole lot, and todays mild dip didnt amount to much at all. I even question that we will see 1150 before we see 1225, my upside target for the SnP. Maybe after that we will see a decent sell off. Of course I will have no more money to be in options, so i get to watch all the other bears enjoy.

ISEE Bearish warning!

the ISEE 10 day moving average of equities only is now at a high point, indicating extreme optimisim, a contrarian indicator of a possible top. Its at 204.40 and everytime its been over 200 the market has sold off. Very perplexing these contrary warnings.. With the VIX at around 17 this confirms it. btw, the ISEE reading was 276 yesterday. the all time high is 279 and that was october 8, 2007, only a couple days ahead of the all time high in the SnP of 1576 on october 11th.

IFT warning of bullish explosion

I have an indicator using a scan of the entire market, pulling out all stocks that are giving a IFT buy signal, vs all that are giving a IFT sell signal. I run the mcClellan Oscillator on this data. And it has turned up for the first time since late january prefacing the Feb 5 bottom. It has been dropping during this recent meltup but instead of a sell off we just got a sideways kind of upside bias. Now it may be forcasting a huge rally. I dont know what to call this indicator. any ideas? ITF consensus??

Gold miner Buy signals

GDX buy signal today, along with many gold miner stocks... ABX, AEM RGLD GFI

RE sell signals

Lots of sell signals on the real estate ETFs... DRN, VNQ and IYR

$DXY Sell!

I got an end of day sell signal on the US buck via UUP. First support (UUP) at 23.60, then 23.34, then big drop. then a corresponding buy on the EURO etf FXE

Day before Employment day.

It outta be interesting tomorrow. Expectations are way high that this employment report is gonna show 200k-400k new jobs, even tho all of that is simply due to the census hiring by the govt. The ADP report on wednesday gave a warning sign by coming in with -25k, what a surprise, but the market basically ignored it. On the other hand, tomorrow could be a win/win for the bulls. If the jobs number is hugely positive they will celebrate that the recovery is in full gear, if it comes out less than expectations they will celebrate that the fed will have to continue quantitative easing. At any rate since the damn markets are all closed tomorrow nothing will happen till monday. I HATE HOLIDAYS!

Meanwhile.. all my systems are on the market bullish side so if it continues up, maybe these stocks will hit their targets and be out. I see the inverse ETFs starting to base in here, setting up for a major pullback. I'm really anxious to see how the systems deal with all this. Two stocks that I shouldnt have bought are RINO and KONG. about $3k losers. Number 1.. Kong gapped up huge after a huge up day, I should never have bought that open. Number 2... my new filter.. looking at the Linear regression curves on weekly basis to determine up trend or down.. both in a down, this would have filtered them out. meanwhile, I have maxed out with 10 stocks and missed 3 winners in silver (SLV), AHL, and GPRE. These 3 are up 1500 already. Nice winners so far.. ERX, TCK, CTEL. almost up $3k together.