Thursday, April 8, 2010

Pullback time

I have been seeing a ton of indications that the pull back we have been waiting for was about to happen, and it seems to have begun. 6 weeks of up totally screwed my April Q puts which are now worthless. Another $1k down the drain. I tell ya, trading options sucks. Huge leverage but can really be killed with theta melt. I gotta remember to allow at least 4 weeks for each up move, probably half that for the down moves. Now this two day selloff, seems pretty darn weak to me. If we get down to 1150, that may be all we get. Its all about buy the dip now. a crappy 3.5% drop. My systems of course are still long, have exited several but there is still a full plate. needless to say they gave back a ton of profits but are hanging in there. one, HMIN had a trail stop (which mostly do more to take away from profit)at 33.30 and right after it hit the stock jumped back up a buck. This is why I hate stops, and prefer limits/targets. In testing stops and % profit trails, or b/e stops hinder performance. Instead, my core system includes a stop/exit for COT.. change of trend. this can be heartbreaking often as there usually is a bounce but the reversal does eventually turn out to be true and at least the account is not devestated.

Retail sales seem to be strong, but employment is weaker than thought, and greece is still a mess with the swap rates rising dramatically overnight. This will be the first country to go bankrupt. They cannot print money, and have to use the EURO, so no where to go. They can only borrow their way out for so long and its going to all come due. The market has had some increase in volume yesterday on the downside, but not a whole lot, and todays mild dip didnt amount to much at all. I even question that we will see 1150 before we see 1225, my upside target for the SnP. Maybe after that we will see a decent sell off. Of course I will have no more money to be in options, so i get to watch all the other bears enjoy.

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