Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Bond yields suggest SnP should be 750

From zerohedge...

One of the less discussed topics by the propaganda machine is that with bond yields approaching record yields, and in the case of the 2Ybelow them, the S&P has no place trading over 1,000. There was a time when bonds and stocks would correlate, and as bond prices surged, equities would plunge and vice versa. Now that we live in HFT days where stock values are completely disconnected from fundamentals, and even the bond market, courtesy of the Fed's seemingly endless market interference,  it makes sense to extrapolate what the fair value of stocks would be implied purely based on bond yields stripping away for the Fed. Attached we present a very simple regression analysis between simple 10 year spreads and the S&P, and the 2s10s (steepness between the 2 and 10 Year) and the S&P. What both analyses indicate is that stocks are approximately 30% overvalued, at least based on historical regression patterns relying on yields to imply stock prices. Yet even though this analysis is purely statistical, here is a simple extension: with US stocks at about $13 trillion in market cap, if one assumes the suggested 30% haircut the result is $9.1 trillion in fair market value. Considering that the Fed has pumped $2.5 trillion in the form of monetary stimulus, and Obama's various fiscal stimuli now amount to just over $1 trillion, that explains the delta. Bonds are implying where stocks should be almost to the dot, absent the $3.5 trillion pumped into stocks by the administration and the Chairman. Fair value of stocks, when stripped away from the printer and Congress, is 750.

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