Its been a while..

I have been so crushed with this meltup of the last couple months that I have had no energy to make any posts.  My TZA is practically dead.  It was at just under 42 end of august and now its broken below 20.  Straight down for 10 weeks.  Whats really frustrating is that when the Russell 2k was this high back in April, TZA got only as low as 26.50.  TNA its bullish counterpart is also suffering as its over 10 points less than it was in April.  My only conclusion is that shorting these leveraged ETFs is much better than buying them.

I cannot bail here on the TZA however, since the market is simply way too overbought and in dire need of a correction.  Here are some bearish considerations:

1.  We are in the area of the April highs which is big resistance but have rallied 25% on the Russell since late August and 18% on the SnP which is a big jump in a short time.
2.  Last time we were this high the forward looking PE on the SnP was 100, now its less, like 95.  GDP was projected at 3%, now its 2.5%.   The market is forward looking, discounting, and news is less good now.. go figure.
3.  The QE2 is now been announced.  What else is there to look forward to?
4.  The economy is showing no striking improvement and is just limping along.
5.  Everyone is bullish!
6.  Everyone is bearish on the buck and long everything else.  Way too crowded.
7.  The VIX is in the teens.
8.  The PIIGS problem abroad is still very present.
9.  The mortage mess is still an issue even if the banks are trying to stuff it under the rug with the help of the newly appointed republican Attorneys General.
10.  Foreign holders of US buck denominated assets are not very pleased with what we are doing to the dollar nor are our trading partners.
11.  Real Estate is still in a downward trend, both residential and commercial.
12.  41 million people are on food stamps.
13.  Govt is now entering a two year gridlock where nothing will be done.  A complete standstill.

The only reason this market is going up is because the Fed asks Goldman how much free money they would like to keep buying the market up.. and they give it to them.