I'm Baaaaack!

Well its been a couple months.  Almost correlates with the 7 consecutive up weeks in the market.  I feel this market is way overbought at this point (kinda like I have for the last 21 months).  In fact I am getting some indications that the long awaited correction is beginning now.  I have found that the small caps lead the way and therefore I follow the relative strength of the Russell 2k vs. SnP.  It has now turned down for the first time since early September '10 and in fact is breaking an up trend line since then.  The daily TRIN 30 ema has bounced off the bottom (around 0.90) where it usually hits at a top.  The dow has stopped at resistance in the 11860 area.  The SnP is stalling just under the 1300 barrier.  Weekly RSIs are way overbought and showing bearish divergence.  The VIX has bounced off its low point at around 15, up 9% today.   All these lead me to believe a correction is near.  How far, who knows and with the Fed still pumping the equities with POMO money and QE2, this could just go on at least till June.   Its insane.  I am insane for holding TZA for over 18 months now.  A triple leveraged inverse ETF shorting the small caps.  The same ones that have been leading the market up in the Russell 2k.  UGH!!  I have learned that the math does now work in ones favor holding these highly leveraged, inverse ETFs for long term.  It works against you.  In fact the best way; to play them is to short them.  I now can see that mathematically TZA will never be be where it was when the SnP (for example) was at say 800.   So this is my big mistake that has cost me dearly.  Also, I have learned .. don't fight the FED.  All logic has been out the window during this bull run.  The billions that the Fed has put into the system has simply been used to buy equities and ramp up the market.  And instead of going against that I should have joined the happy crowd of bulls.  They even told everyone how long they will continue to feed the market heroin.

Now on to my real reason for posting.. my next post.