Disgusting market

The employment report comes out with a huge dissappointment today, only up 39k jobs with the rate jumping to 9.8% and what does the market do?   open slighly lower then rally to positive territory.  Something is very wrong with this picture.  Manipulation, stupidity, CNBC hype, HFTs???   I don't get it.   TZA has been the biggest loser I have ever had the experience of owning.  Russel 2k is still off its recent highs yet TZA is well into new  low territory.  The math is totally against long term investing in leveraged ETFs, especially inverse ones.  I guess the days of the stock market making any kind of sense are now gone.

Its been a while..

I have been so crushed with this meltup of the last couple months that I have had no energy to make any posts.  My TZA is practically dead.  It was at just under 42 end of august and now its broken below 20.  Straight down for 10 weeks.  Whats really frustrating is that when the Russell 2k was this high back in April, TZA got only as low as 26.50.  TNA its bullish counterpart is also suffering as its over 10 points less than it was in April.  My only conclusion is that shorting these leveraged ETFs is much better than buying them.

I cannot bail here on the TZA however, since the market is simply way too overbought and in dire need of a correction.  Here are some bearish considerations:

1.  We are in the area of the April highs which is big resistance but have rallied 25% on the Russell since late August and 18% on the SnP which is a big jump in a short time.
2.  Last time we were this high the forward looking PE on the SnP was 100, now its less, like 95.  GDP was projected at 3%, now its 2.5%.   The market is forward looking, discounting, and news is less good now.. go figure.
3.  The QE2 is now been announced.  What else is there to look forward to?
4.  The economy is showing no striking improvement and is just limping along.
5.  Everyone is bullish!
6.  Everyone is bearish on the buck and long everything else.  Way too crowded.
7.  The VIX is in the teens.
8.  The PIIGS problem abroad is still very present.
9.  The mortage mess is still an issue even if the banks are trying to stuff it under the rug with the help of the newly appointed republican Attorneys General.
10.  Foreign holders of US buck denominated assets are not very pleased with what we are doing to the dollar nor are our trading partners.
11.  Real Estate is still in a downward trend, both residential and commercial.
12.  41 million people are on food stamps.
13.  Govt is now entering a two year gridlock where nothing will be done.  A complete standstill.

The only reason this market is going up is because the Fed asks Goldman how much free money they would like to keep buying the market up.. and they give it to them.

Downright ugly!

This is one fucked up market..IMHO.  Just a bunch of chaos.  I guess its cause there are a bunch of computers playing against each other with algorithms that are based on human nature, however, the humans are becoming more and more absent from this whole mess.  down 165 yesterday up 130 today.  WTF??   trendlines are broken then broken back again.  20 min indicators pointing up while 60s and 5s are pointing down.  I guess its simply not time to trade.  I'm hanging it up for a while until this nonsense subsides.  this is bullshit... probably a reflection of the fucked up mass consciousness in this country.

Some bearish signals happening

SPY RSI uptrendline broken today, along with the SnP 60 min. trendline.   Market stopped at the 200 week moving average and turned down.  DXY stopped its descent at trendline support 76.14  and big up candle today, way due for a bounce.  McClellan Osc. bearish divergence and has turned down at down trendline.  VIX bollinger sell signal was 3 days ago and these usually can take a week +-3 days to manifest the selloff.   IFT total buys vs. sells has been building a bearish case for a while now.  52wk hilos although choppy has turned bearish.   My 60 min relative strength indicator has turned down (small caps leading the drop)  but the daily has yet to cross bearish.  60 min LRCs are all in sell mode and dailys are headed that way .. whether this is a good correction is still yet to be known.  Also after these parabolic rises in gold, AAPL, EURO etc .. this market is way too frothy and overbought.  I think its time to get positioned for a downswing.  The financials, small caps and R/E could be shorted here.  FAZ, DRV, TZA.

Is it time to stop paying the mortgage all together?

here is a great article from zerohedge detailing the whole mortgage mess, how it got there and where it stands now.  The banks are totally vulnerable to a homeowner revolt by just stopping payment and asking for proof that the bank owns the note.  http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gonzalo-lira-second-leg-down-americas-death-spiral

Dow screaming past 11,000 ... Happy Dow is here again!

"About three dozen of the top publicly held securities and investment-services firms—which include banks, investment banks, hedge funds, money-management firms and securities exchanges—are set to pay $144 billion in compensation and benefits this year, a 4% increase from the $139 billion paid out in 2009, according to the survey. Compensation was expected to rise at 26 of the 35 firms." WSJ

Now a buy signal!!

Talk about being whipsawed.  Now the RelativeStrength indicators both daily and 60 minute are pointing up.  I probably should bail on all shorts and switch to long, but the market seems so overbought, the SnP stopped just above the 1160 target, which is also slightly above the 100% fib projection ... well maybe more than slightly, next projection would be 1202 ..hmmmm.  The RUT just slightly exceeded the 61.8% fib retracement and at some resistance 690 area.  ???   Geez, confusing as to bail or look for a pullback from here.  TZA has broken down to new lows.  the ETFs drop way faster than they go up.  While Rut high this year was 746 and its now 689!!  and TZA at all time low??  Whats up with that?

Plus all the LRCs for 20 min, 60 min and daily... are all pointing up.   Should I jump on board the bull train at these lofty highs or just stand aside after closing all loser shorts??   This market is incredibly difficult to figure.  Its all about the Fed pumping cash into the economy with its POMO.  Why can't they just leave the markets to find their own balance?