ECRI leading indicator drops even more.. headed toward -10%

The ECRI Leading Indicators just can't stop falling. From a revised annualized -7.6% drop last week, this week the index dropped to a fresh low of -8.3%. Should be sufficient for another major leg higher in stocks. Of course, the funniest thing is listening to the index creators describe how while the index was a perfect leading indicator on the way up, it is completely useless on the way down.  But yes, according to the index the probability of a recession is now about 90%; compare this number to that spewed forth by Goldman's Recession Prediction Eight Ball, which has the risk of a double dip at just about precisely 1.6%.


from zerohedge