Saturday, July 24, 2010

Mkt direction up!

I hate to say it, but from what I am seeing, the market is headed up.  A perfect formation has played out on the daily charts with setup and trigger for an up move.  Weekly charts have not yet turned and are facing downward, but the dialys could drag them up if its a strong enough move.  On the other hand, there is resistance here between 1110-1130.  I am going to hold my nose and put in buy orders on ETFs and stocks that are showing the same pattern.. such as XLY (consumer discretionay)  URE (R/e) XLK (tech spider)  ITB (home builders)  FAS (financials)  HHH (internet) XLI (industrials)  TNA (small caps)  ERX (energy)  ... all contrary to my belief in where these sectors are going long term..  but this time last year, I was wrong in that regard so even tho it goes against my intuition, I will put these buys in on my new virtual account based on a very sweet 5 line daily and 60 minute charts with all the noise removed of so oscilators, candles etc.  I find this gives a much clearer picture but the performance going forward will the be the proof in the pudding.

here is the daily and 60 simplified charts I am using now (I did put in MACD and some "showmes")











here it is for the SnP and Russell 2000, top is daily, bottom is hourly.  Two sets of linear regression curves plus a x moving average on each.  price crosses above the ema of the longer curve, then pulls back, then bounces after all have crossed over and point up.












however, here is the longer term weekly charts showing a definite trend change to down.

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